系统性金融风险的历史考察与防范对策

深入学习习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告，在考察20世纪以来的12次金融危机的基础上，对系统性金融风险发生的根源进行了研究，并结合我国当前系统性金融风险面临的形势，提出了防范系统性金融风险的对策建议。研究表明，将过去100多年引发金融危机的系统性金融风险的根源与我国当前的金融形势进行比较分析，可以发现我国面临的系统性金融风险形势十分严峻，必须在党的领导下，采取打击金融腐败、适当收紧货币政策、完善金融监管体系、维护币值稳定、加强金融科技监管等相关政策来防止系统金融风险的发生。     

An innovation to improve health outcomes in Amajuba district,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Systems’ thinking places high value on understanding the context. This study focused on the collection of disaggregated data in order to understand the context, to facilitate improvement of health outcomes. The aim of this article was to assess the implementation of municipal ward-based health data collection (disaggregated data) and health care workers’ perceptions of this data collection process. This cross-sectional study used mixed methods in Amajuba district. The participants were professional nurses at the Primary Health Care level. Of the 131 respondents, 123 (93.9%) collected municipal ward-based health data, and found it useful. Opportunities for improving data collection were identified. Disaggregation of the data at ward level contributes to a better understanding of the target population’s health, assists planning for health needs and enables provision of targeted interventions in order to improve health outcomes, to prevent financial regression and waste of health resources.     

互联网金融规制与市场有效性改善*——来自中国网络借贷行业的证据

中国的互联网金融经历了一个先创新发展后监管规制的过程，本文通过对网络借贷行业的实证研究，分析监管规则的出台实施对新型互联网融资市场有效性的影响。实证结果表明，网络借贷平台资金的银行存管、持有ICP证等强制性规定缓解了投资者、平台企业与借款人之间的信息不对称，对克服早期平台间通过竞相承诺高回报率来吸引投资者导致的“柠檬市场”问题、对解决网贷市场上缺乏平台风险性高低有效信号的问题都起到了正向作用，有助于互联网融资市场的有效性提高。     

Perceptions of the benefits of the A3 planner in facilitating project-based learning in accounting education

This paper evaluates ways of instilling project management skills into accounting-based learning by the use of an iterative A3 planner to plan, monitor and review assignment progress. The application of an A3 planner to facilitate a project-based learning (PBL) group assignment in undergraduate accounting education has been critically evaluated in terms of both the student and tutor experience. The study uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitative data assisting exploration of perceptions were collected through 100 undergraduate students. A series of focus group discussions were carried out to investigate students’ engagement and tutors’ teaching experiences regarding the adoption of the A3 planner. The results suggest that the A3 planner promotes active planning and effective management of a PBL group assignment. It makes students’ thought processes more visible thereby facilitating and enhancing the tutoring/mentoring process. Moreover a more interactive and transparent approach by doing assignment via the use of an iterative A3 planner has ensured more feedback points and action based efficiency in the doing approach for learners.     

Machine learning for financial transaction classification across companies using character-level word embeddings of text fields

An important initial step in accounting is mapping financial transfers to the corresponding accounts. We devised machine-learning-based systems that automate this process. They use word embeddings with character-level features to process transaction texts. When considering 473 companies independently, our approach achieved an average top-1 accuracy of 80.50%, outperforming baselines that exclude the transaction texts or rely on a lexical bag-of-words text representation. We extended the approach to generalizes across companies and even across different corporate sectors. After standardization of the account structures and careful feature engineering, a single classifier trained on 44 companies from 28 sectors achieved a test accuracy of more than 80%. When trained on 43 companies and tested on the remaining one, the system achieved an average performance of 64.62%. This rate increased to nearly 70% when considering only the largest sector.     

新发展格局视野中的消费券发放问题与重构研究

2020年面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,各地纷纷发放消费券刺激消费。本轮发放消费券的省市和规模远超以往。考察当前各地消费券的实践,其存在三方面的问题:短期刺激消费与构建发展新格局缺乏衔接、地方各自为政与顶层设计阙如、财政补贴与财政约束的张力。针对这些问题,本文从新发展格局视野提出将当前消费券重构为财政和金融融合的消费金融券,使之成为构建新发展格局中扩大内需的长期政策和重要的宏观调控工具。消费金融券的制度设计要与社会结构新特征和新趋势相契合。针对低收入群体的消费金融券,应以财政补贴为主、以重大生活项目消费的利息补贴与信用担保为辅。针对中等收入群体的消费金融券,应以利息补贴为主,通过消费金融的方式扩大消费。加大消费金融券的全国顶层设计,明确中央和地方财政支持产业的范围和力度。     

Financial scandals: a historical overview

I examine the incidence of fraud from c.1720 to 2009 and relate it to the occurrence of significant financial scandals. Focusing on the UK, and US prior to Enron, and using a detailed dataset of significant events and news content, underpinned by examination of specific watershed scandals, the paper highlights the regulatory response to scandals and the implications for accounting and financial reporting. The evidence reveals the incidence of fraud and financial scandal to be historically contingent and skewed towards certain sectors, particularly banking and finance, facilitated by complex group structures and international capital mobility, and mediated by managerial incentives and ownership concentration. Financial reporting and auditing can mitigate fraud opportunities in all sectors and businesses without complex group structures, and the accounting profession achieved some success in this respect up to the mid-1970s. Since then, the profession has been increasingly challenged by, and to some degree implicated in, the development of interconnected and international business networks, which, combined with wider financial deregulation, has led to a resurgence of fraud and financial scandal not previously experienced since the mid-nineteenth century.     

Cross-border exchanges and volatility forecasting

We test for the performance of a series of volatility forecasting models (GARCH 1,1; EGARCH 1,1; CGARCH) in the context of several indices from the two oldest cross-border exchanges (Euronext; OMX). Our findings overall indicate that the EGARCH (1,1) model outperforms the other two, both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Controlling for the presence of feedback traders, the accuracy of the EGARCH (1,1) model is not affected, something further confirmed for both the pre and post crisis periods. Overall, ARCH effects can be found in the Euronext and OMX indices, with our results further indicating the presence of significant positive feedback trading in several of our tests.